Last Updated on 2 months ago by Charbel Coorey

Another ICC tournament, another net run rate scenario for Pakistan. England’s stunning win over New Zealand on Friday means Pakistan enter their final match against already-eliminated Sri Lanka with their tournament still alive.

However, the fact New Zealand lost narrowly means the Black Caps are still in the box seat to qualify for the semi-finals. Mitchell Santner’s team still boast a net run rate of 1.390 compared to Pakistan’s -0.461.

Scenario: Pakistan need to beat Sri Lanka by big margin to qualify for 2026 T20 World Cup semi-finals

To overtake New Zealand on net run rate, Pakistan need to win by 65 runs or chase any target in 13.1 overs. In both scenarios, Pakistan must bowl Sri Lanka out cheaply.

If Pakistan set a target of 180, they will need to bowl Sri Lanka for 115 or less. If they bowl first, limiting Sri Lanka to a similar kind of score gives them a chance of chasing it in 79 balls or less.

However, Pakistan also must deliver the kind of batting impact they’ve failed to produce for most of the tournament. Only Sahibzada Farhan and Shadab Khan have scored more than 100 runs for Pakistan in this World Cup, as the likes of Saim Ayub, Salman Ali Agha and Babar Azam have struggled to get going.

Sri Lanka’s awful form, though, gives Pakistan hope. The co-hosts batted terribly against England and New Zealand, losing the matches by 51 runs and 61 runs respectively.

The performances left Sri Lanka fans very disappointed. Dasun Shanaka acknowledged the embarrassing performances, while also pointing to public negativity as a reason for the team’s poor display. So, will Sri Lanka be motivated by pride in this match against Pakistan?

“It is very embarrassing to disappoint the home crowd. You know, they’ve been very supportive,” Dasun Shanaka said after the New Zealand defeat, as quoted by NDTV Sports.

“A lot of times what we see and hear are negative things. No matter how we as cricketers try to stay positive, there is negativity outside,” Shanaka said.

“That’s a big loss for Sri Lankan cricket. This is the only sport we have, and I don’t know if we’ll be able to protect it. If you look outside the stadium, you’ll see how many people are standing outside with mics, and people will say stuff without having watched the match.”