Last Updated on 3 days by Charbel Coorey

Group B of the 2025 Asia Cup was hard to call, and it predictably comes down to the 11th match of the tournament to decide who goes through to the Super Four.

Sri Lanka, barring a very heavy loss, are through. Afghanistan must win after their tight loss against Bangladesh. The stage is set for what promises to be a fascinating encounter with plenty at stake.

For Sri Lanka, they will want an improved performance compared to their outing against Hong Kong. They didn’t take the wickets expected of them, before toiling with the bat and getting home thanks to Pathum Nissanka’s platform and Wanindu Hasaranga’s finishing.

Afghanistan would have been disappointed not to chase down 155 against the Tigers, although it was a tricky Abu Dhabi track. There were plenty of starts, but the fall of regular wickets hurt them dearly, with Azmatullah Omarzai’s wicket in the 16th over just about sealing Afghanistan’s fate.

So, who will hold their nerve in this encounter? In an Asia Cup filled with non-cricketing news, a thriller here is just what the fans are after.

Asia Cup 2025 11th Match: AFG vs SL Probable Playing XIs

The onus is on Afghanistan’s top order to provide a better start. Maheesh Theekshana will look to test them after Nasum Ahmed caused them trouble in the last match.

Afghanistan: 1. Sediqullah Atal, 2. Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 3. Ibrahim Zadran, 4. Mohammad Nabi, 5. Azmatullah Omarzai, 6. Gulbadin Naib, 7. Karim Janat, 8. Rashid Khan (c), 9. Noor Ahmad, 10. AM Ghazanfar, 11. Fazalhaq Farooqi

Sri Lanka: 1. Pathum Nissanka, 2. Kusal Mendis (wk), 3. Kamil Mishara, 4. Kusal Perera, 5. Dasun Shanaka, 6. Charith Asalanka (c), 7. Kamindu Mendis, 8. Wanindu Hasaranga, 9. Dushmantha Chameera, 10. Maheesh Theekshana, 11. Nuwan Thishara/Matheesha Pathirana

Sheikh Zayed Stadium Abu Dhabi Pitch Report and Weather

The average first innings score at Abu Dhabi in this Asia Cup is 159.2. The team batting first has won three of the five matches. Batting first here could be an attractive proposition, especially for Afghanistan who usually win when batting first.

According to Spoda AI data, Afghanistan:

• Score an average of 45.17 runs in the powerplay when batting first in T20s since 2019. The corresponding figure when batting second is 44.75.
• Score an average of 67.13 runs in the middle overs when batting first in T20s since 2019. The corresponding figure when batting second is 57.78.
• Smash an average of 48.47 runs in the death overs when batting first compared to 36.98 when batting second, although second innings usually end earlier.

Abu Dhabi track was tricky for batting in the Afghanistan-Bangladesh game. Setting a score could be a winning approach here.

Fantasy Cricket Tips for AFG vs SL: Players to Watch/Key Stats

Top wicket-keeper picks:

• Rahmanullah Gurbaz is in need of runs. This could be the game he returns to form as he has a superb record against Sri Lanka: 6 inns, 248 runs, avg. 41.33, SR 172.22.
• Kusal Mendis is picked in 72.23% of Dream11 teams as he bats up the order and has the wicket-keeping gloves. He averages just 18.66 in six T20Is against Afghanistan, but is capable of scoring well provided he gets through his poor matchup against Fazalhaq Farooqi (see below).

Key batter picks:

• Pathum Nissanka is in terrific form, with consecutive half-centuries in this Asia Cup. SPODA AI data states there is a 49.27% probability that Nissanka crosses 30 runs, the highest probability of any player in this match.
• Sediqullah Atal was dismissed first ball against Bangladesh. Despite that, he’s been in decent form, but how he fares against spin will be crucial. He averages 17.9 with a strike rate of 114.7 against spin in all T20s.
• Kamil Mishara has been in good form of late, with scores of 20, 73*, 46* and 19 in his past four T20Is.

Top all-rounder picks:

• Wanindu Hasaranga had an excellent outing against Hong Kong (1/27 and 20* off 9 balls). Hasaranga has the most wickets in AFG-SL T20Is (8) at an average of 16.12 and strike rate of 17.25. Also, he has scored 120 runs at an average of 30.00 and strike rate of 173.91.
• Azmatullah Omarzai is striking at 224.32 so far in this Asia Cup. He also bowls upfront with the new ball, making him a solid c/vc option.

Key bowler picks:

• Rashid Khan has dismissed Kusal Mendis twice in 11 balls in all T20 cricket. The Afghan captain has three wickets so far in this Asia Cup and can hit a long ball down the order.
• Noor Ahmad is a consistent wicket-taker. He has picked up eight wickets in his past five T20Is.
• Dushmantha Chameera has taken 11 wickets in his past five T20Is. In all T20s this year, Chameera has taken 15 wickets in the death overs at a strike rate of 11.1 and impressive economy of 7.81.

Other Players to Consider for your Fantasy Cricket Teams

• Fazalhaq Farooqi has a dominant record against Kusal Mendis in T20Is: 22 balls, 11 runs, three wickets.
• If Sri Lanka pick Matheesha Pathirana, he is worth considering in fantasy cricket. He has taken eight wickets in four T20Is against Afghanistan.
• Gulbadin Naib can be used up the order and Afghanistan often look to utilise him for an over or two.
• Mohammad Nabi bowled in the Bangladesh game and he bats in the top five. However, he has a poor record against SL (69 runs, avg. 13.80).

Other Stats and Facts

• Head-to-head: Matches 8, Sri Lanka 5, Afghanistan 3.
• SPODA AI data gives a 58.23% probability that Wanindu Hasaranga will take at least two wickets. This is based on recent performance plus his career record against Afghanistan.
• Hasaranga has a good record against Gurbaz in all T20s: 35 balls, 53 runs, three wickets. He has also dismissed Nabi twice in 17 balls.
• Pathum Nissanka in T20Is against Afghanistan: 6 inns, 139 runs, avg. 27.80, SR 154.44.

Asia Cup 2025 11th Match: AFG vs SL Dream11 Prediction

Note: The below teams are not based on the final playing XIs. We may not be able to update these in time. Use the stats and commentary in this article, as well as your own instincts, to create your teams. 

Option 1:

Option 2:

Asia Cup 2025 11th Match: AFG vs SL Match Prediction – Who will win?

This could go either way. I think the team who bats first will go on to win this match.

Disclaimer: The fantasy cricket stats, tips and predictions provided on CricBlog are intended for informational purposes for Dream11 free contests in line with the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Bill, 2025. The stats and writer’s views are in place to guide fans in creating their teams. While we strive to offer accurate and insightful advice, CricBlog does not guarantee success or winnings in any fantasy contests. Users are encouraged to make their own informed decisions and play responsibly.