Last Updated on 1 month by Charbel Coorey

As the 2025 Champions Trophy (CT) final looms on the horizon in Dubai, the India-New Zealand showdown promises a fascinating tactical battle. Both teams have relied on settled lineups, but given the conditions and matchups, there certainly is a case for slight tactical adjustments.

New Zealand faces a call: inject Devon Conway’s spin-playing finesse or preserve their bowling depth. For India, the question is whether a tweak in their spin arsenal could help counter a left-hand-heavy Kiwi lineup.

What follows is an exploration of the tactical tweaks that could shape this high-stakes duel.

India vs New Zealand CT 2025 Final Tactical Analysis: Go with the same team or make a bold call?

New Zealand’s Batting Puzzle: Conway for Young or Jamieson?

New Zealand must weigh the risk-reward equation in their batting order. Will Young’s form has dipped since his brilliant hundred against Pakistan, making Devon Conway a compelling alternative. His proficiency against spin, coupled with his left-handed presence, could add another layer of complexity to the plans of India’s left-arm duo, Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel.

One path is a straightforward swap: Conway for Young. This preserves the bowling attack, with Kyle Jamieson’s pace alongside Will O’Rourke and spearhead Matt Henry, while Conway slots into the top order.

A bolder move beckons, though: could Conway replace Jamieson? With Rachin Ravindra and Glenn Phillips offering credible bowling options — capable of delivering tight overs of spin — New Zealand could deepen their batting by swapping Conway for Jamieson, a shift the conditions might well favour. From India’s perspective, Rachin and Phillips could pose a sterner challenge than Jamieson, whose overs beyond the Powerplay might present an opportunity to seize control.

Conway’s inclusion bolsters the middle order against spin, his left-handedness adding a layer to combat India’s attack, while Mitchell Santner at No. 9 lends substantial depth. This setup frees the top order to attack early against the softer ball — particularly in a chase — with a safety net of wickets in hand.

India’s Spin Conundrum: Sundar over Kuldeep?

India, however, could pre-empt New Zealand’s move. Anticipating Conway’s inclusion, they might turn to an off-spinner like Washington Sundar — a tactic that doubles as a shield against New Zealand’s broader left-heavy lineup, with as many as four (or five, if Conway plays) left-handers in their top eight.

One could argue that both Kuldeep Yadav and Washington Sundar spin the ball left-to-right, their stock deliveries turning away from left-handers. The choice between them, however, hinges on form and fit.

Kuldeep, despite his undeniable brilliance, has struggled to recapture his peak since his return. A noticeable dip in pace has blunted his effectiveness, allowing batters to sit deep and play him comfortably off the back foot.

Sundar’s quick off-spin, by contrast, offers a compelling alternative. His bowling style could prove particularly effective on a slow Dubai track, posing greater challenges to batters than Kuldeep’s wrist-spin in its current form. He could exploit the surface more effectively, especially against a lineup leaning on left-handers to dominate spin.

Beyond his bowling, Sundar’s inclusion further deepens India’s batting – much like Conway’s would for New Zealand, as discussed earlier. It grants the top order license to be more aggressive against the newer, harder ball. Moreover, it gives India another left-handed option, one that could be floated up the order if Santner’s craft triggers a middle-overs collapse.

The Toss: A Case for Batting First

The toss could prove a defining moment in Dubai, with both teams likely itching to bat first. Dew is unlikely to tilt the scales, leaving the prospect of chasing against either side’s elite spin a daunting task. India’s semi-final pursuit was aided by a weakened Australian attack (and a Kohli masterclass). Here, whether it’s India chasing a New Zealand total or the other way around, batting second on a slowing pitch will be a tough challenge.

Gill’s Battle: Powerplay and Beyond

For India, the game’s pulse may hinge on Shubman Gill’s early tussle with Henry and Jamieson/O’Rourke. If Gill can weather the early swing and seam movement, he not only lays a foundation but also positions himself to be India’s key figure against New Zealand’s spinners in the middle overs.

With Axar Patel, he’ll be key to manoeuvring Santner and the rest of New Zealand’s spin brigade through the middle overs. India’s aim will be to prevent a mid-innings stumble by keeping wickets intact and the scoring rate steady — a balance Gill and Axar will be key to striking — knowing the Black Caps’ death-bowling struggles offer a chance to capitalize late.

Will New Zealand bolster their batting with Conway or stick with Jamieson’s pace? Can India unleash Sundar’s off-spin to counter the Kiwis’ left-heavy lineup, or will Kuldeep rediscover his spark at the eleventh hour? With the toss likely crucial and Gill’s role key in shaping the middle overs, every decision could tip the balance. In a game of fine margins, the team that masters these tactical battles may well take home the trophy.