Last Updated on 47 minutes ago by Dom Harris
A few days have passed since Bangladesh completed one of Test cricket’s greatest upsets by thrashing a full-strength Australia side on their own patch, in what is only their second-ever Test series on Australian shores after a 2-0 defeat in 2003.
Aside from the jubilant scenes in Darwin, it raised a number of questions around the hosts who have since responded by recalling Matt Renshaw in place of Jake Weatherald at the top of the order for the second Test in Mackay beginning on Saturday.
A rather low-key series now suddenly carries extra significance as Australia look to respond and avoid a rare home series defeat, whilst the visitors aim for another momentous achievement.
The result also carried implications for the World Test Championship, with Bangladesh’s prospects still well and truly alive, kick-starting an enthralling period of Test match action between now and early 2027.
It was recently announced Bangladesh will visit England for a one-off Test at Lord’s at the end of May next year, in what has been dubbed an Ashes warm-up for the hosts, but what are the chances the Tigers could similarly be using the fixture as preparation for the WTC final at The Oval a week later?
Flying the flag for Asia
Bangladesh remained in fourth position in the World Test Championship standings after their nine-wicket win, though their win percentage was significantly boosted to a healthy 66.67.
That is higher than neighbours India (53.33), Sri Lanka (33.33) and Pakistan (22.22), as well as England (24.36) and bottom of the table West Indies (20.83).
Australia still lead the way with a points percentage of 77.78, narrowly ahead of South Africa (75) and New Zealand (72.22).
In the 2021-2023 cycle, Australia finished first with a win percentage of 66.67, whilst India qualified in second with 58.80.
The bar rose slightly in the previous cycle with both finalists finishing on more than 67% – South Africa on 69.44 and Australia with 67.54.
Bangladesh – who have only won five Tests across all three previous WTC cycles combined – have seven matches remaining, including the second and final Test against Australia on Saturday
They then face a further trio of two-match series, at home to West Indies, away against holders South Africa and rounding-off by hosting England.
To remain above the 60% mark, Bangladesh would need to win four of those Test matches, with at least an additional draw or two to stay in realistic contention (assuming no over-rate deductions).
A big ask still for Bangladesh then and perhaps talk of a possible route to the final may be getting slightly carried away with the underdog narrative, but importantly they have kept themselves within a mathematical chance.
Test cricket takes centre stage
Such is the mouthwatering schedule – still 13/27 series yet to play – there are plenty of opportunities for teams to take points off one another as they jostle for position.
Australia face three blockbuster assignments with a first Test tour to South Africa since the 2018 ball-tampering scandal, a first home series against neighbours New Zealand since 2019/20, and then an away Border-Gavaskar Trophy.
A return of six wins and a draw, including the final Bangladesh Test, is required for Australia’s points percentage to remain above 60. To finish above 65%, they would need a further 88 points which equates to seven wins and a draw.
Elsewhere, there is an highly-anticipated clash as South Africa welcome England for the first time in seven years, before they travel to Sri Lanka to conclude their cycle.
The Proteas will be targeting six victories from their busy home calendar as they aim to become the first side to defend their Test crown.
Inaugural champions New Zealand host India and Sri Lanka either side of their tough assignment in Australia, whilst also later travelling to Pakistan.
The Kiwis have not beaten Australia in a Test match since 2011, as they go in search of an impressive hat-trick of away victories against the ‘big three’.
New Zealand will similarly be hoping another six wins from their ten matches would be enough to put them firmly in the mix.
India recently secured a comprehensive first Test victory over Sri Lanka but still have very little margin for error and likely need a minimum of six wins and two draws from eight remaining games.
Sri Lanka now too need a near-perfect run to stand a realistic chance of qualification.
England and Pakistan, who kicked off their three-match series yesterday, are both all but out of contention.
