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HomeAucklandT20I Tri Series Final Preview: NZ v Australia

T20I Tri Series Final Preview: NZ v Australia

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Last Updated on 7 years by Charbel Coorey

Cheeky, cheeky New Zealand…

With just one win in the entire competition, including two losses at home, New Zealand are in with a chance of lifting the T20 Tri Series Trophy. Australia’s dominance, where they have won four out of four matches, has meant that they go into the final as favourites, and must against “choking”.

Over 30,000 fans will again pack out Eden Park for a rematch of one of the most extraordinary matches in T20I history. Even on a small ground, not many people would have predicted Australia to chase down a record 244 with more than an over to spare, and New Zealand face an almighty task to try and fight back from such a defeat.

Being kind, New Zealand’s T20 form is scratchy, with just one win in their last six starts, dropping from first to fourth in the T20I rankings in the process. They even lost to a side whose coach believes there is no room for T20 Internationals, which says something about New Zealand at the moment. Yes, you guessed correctly, it was England’s coach Trevor Bayliss.

For Australia, their rejuvenation in the format stems from rewarding the excellent Big Bash performers, who have made an impact in this series. Glenn Maxwell has shown he has to be in all of

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Australia’s limited overs plans, and David Warner hit a timely half century in the last game, to go with D’Arcy Short and Aaron Finch’s excellent batting performances. Australia’s bowlers, like New Zealand’s, didn’t have a fun time at Eden Park last time around, so it will be interesting to see how they go this time.

Key to a New Zealand win

New Zealand’s achilles heel this series has surprisingly been their bowling. In their four matches, New Zealand conceded 719 runs at an economy rate of 10.30, and in each of their home matches, they managed over 190 with the bat, and won only once.
Mitchell Santner returned in Hamilton vs England and was carted around, and New Zealand desperately need him to show his quality in the final. He was missing when Australia chased down 244, so his impact here will be key. In addition, New Zealand’s bowlers would have felt very unlucky with the edges that fell safe for Australia early in their pursuit of 244, and will be hoping those edges can either go to hand, or hit the stumps. 
New Zealand’s bowlers must avoid getting hit straight as much as possible, which means dropping the length a little (or executing excellent yorkers) and taking pace off the ball. Early wickets and getting into Australia’s middle order is key.
Can New Zealand’s bowlers get it right in the final?

Key to a Australia win

How will New Zealand respond to an early onslaught from Australia’s top order in the final?
Another successful powerplay for Australia can create deja vu for New Zealand, and will be a test of the Black Caps’ resolve and confidence to reel in Australia’s powerful batting line up. David Warner hit form with a quick fire 59, and D’Arcy Short was excellent after riding his luck early on. If these two can get Australia off to another flyer, it sets a superb platform for the powerful middle order.
Australia will want more from the dangerous Chris Lynn, who hasn’t quite hit his straps yet this tournament. 
Another key question is how will AJ Tye and the other bowlers bounce back from conceding 240+? With Australia winning, it was forgotten that Australia’s bowlers also struggled, and how they bounce back is an important factor in this game. David Warner has promised inventive fields, which is a good call, as the conventional is unlikely to work at Eden Park.
Warner & Short scored 91 in the powerplay last game. Image courtesy of Fox Sports

Predicted teams

For New Zealand, much will depend on Munro and Guptill at the top, as the middle order didn’t take advantage of the fast start last game against England. All eyes will also be on New Zealand’s bowlers, who haven’t had it easy this series. I expect the Black Caps to have faith that the same side can deliver.

New Zealand XI: 1. Martin Guptill, 2. Colin Munro, 3. Kane Williamson (c), 4. Mark Chapman, 5. Ross Taylor, 6. Colin de Grandhomme, 7. Tim Seifert (wk), 8. Mitchell Santner, 9. Tim Southee, 10. Ish Sodhi, 11. Trent Boult

In the 240+ game, only Ashton Agar went for under 10 an over with the ball for Australia. The bowling line up will be cause for discussion in the lead up to the game, but I think it would be wrong and unfair for Australia to make changes. The bowlers had to adjust from the MCG to Eden Park, which is a massive change, and should be better for the experience last week. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if Australia look to swap a fast bowler with a spinner to take further pace off the ball.

Australia XI: 1. David Warner (c), 2. D’Arcy Short, 3. Chris Lynn, 4. Glenn Maxwell, 5. Aaron Finch, 6. Marcus Stoinis, 7. Alex Carey (wk), 8. Ashton Agar, 9. Kane Richardson, 10. Andrew Tye, 11. Billy Stanlake

Stats & Facts:

  • New Zealand have scored 196/5, 243/6 and 192/4 in their three games at home, and have only won one.
  • Australia have won their last five T20Is, whereas New Zealand have won just one of their last five.
  • Glenn Maxwell averages over 106 in this series.

Prediction

Will this be as high scoring as the last meeting? Who knows.
One thing is for certain though is that this match will be a very competitive one, with the pressure on Australia to take the trophy after winning all their group games. New Zealand know these conditions well, and will be looking to learn from what happened last week, and Australia will be looking to put New Zealand under further pressure.
I will pick Australia to win simply because they have more firepower in their batting line up, which can be the ultimate difference on the small Eden Park field.
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Charbel Coorey
Charbel Cooreyhttps://cricblog.net
Charbel is the owner & founder of cricblog.net, based in Sydney, Australia. He started the website to fulfill his love for the game of cricket. Charbel has been featured on other publications including OP India, Times of India, and The Roar, among others. He is also a keen fantasy sports player. Charbel has also had the privilege of interviewing cricketers on the CricBlog TV YouTube channel, including James Neesham, Rassie van der Dussen, Andrew Tye, Shreyas Gopal, Jaydev Unadkat and Saurabh Netravalkar: https://www.youtube.com/@cricblogtv For any story tips or questions, you can contact Charbel at charbelcoorey@cricblog.net.

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