Last Updated on 3 months by Charbel Coorey
WTC 2023-25 scenarios: The race for the World Test Championship (WTC) Final heated up after an action-packed last few months of Test cricket. South Africa confirmed their spot in the final, set to be played in England in mid-2025, after a thrilling two-wicket win over Pakistan in Centurion.
In this article, we’ll look at the scenarios for each team in question, including the maximum percentage they can attain. First, here is the scoring system for the competition:
| Points per match | Percentage | |
| Win | 12 | 100 |
| Tie | 6 | 50 |
| Draw | 4 | 33.33 |
| Loss | 0 | 0 |
WTC 2023-25 scenarios: South Africa reach final – who will join them?
Australia and India were considered the favourites to reach the final. However, South Africa’s strong run has sealed their qualification. Now, Australia and India fight it out to join the Proteas at Lord’s.
South Africa
- QUALIFIED
- Current points: 88
- Current percentage: 66.67
- Remaining fixtures: 1 Test vs Pakistan (H)
Australia
- Current points: 106
- Current percentage: 58.89
- Remaining fixtures: 2 Tests vs India (H), 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (A)
Australia face a tough fight to regain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. They also travel to Sri Lanka in January for a tough two-match series in Galle. So, we can certainly expect Pat Cummins’ team to be tested against spin in early 2025.
If Australia win all four remaining Tests, they will finish with a percentage of 67.54. If they beat India 3-1 and draw 1-1 in Sri Lanka, they will end with a percentage of 62.28.
- If the BGT ends 2-2, Australia’s win percentage will be 57.84 heading into the Sri Lanka series. India’s will finish at 55.26.
- Afterwards, if Australia beat Sri Lanka 2-0, they will finish with a win percentage of 62.28.
- A 2-2 draw in the BGT and 1-1 draw in Sri Lanka will see Australia finish with a win percentage of 57.02. This will be enough for qualification ahead of India’s 55.26.
India
- Current points: 114
- Current percentage: 55.89
- Remaining fixtures: 2 Tests vs Australia (A)
India’s shock 3-0 loss to the Black Caps left them in a very difficult position. Victories in the final two Tests in Australia will take them to a win percentage of 60.53.
In such a scenario, Australia’s win percentage would drop to 51.96 before their series in Sri Lanka. A 2-0 win for Australia there will take them to 57.02, which would still see India qualify.
- If India draw in Melbourne and win at the SCG, their win percentage will finish at 57.02. In that scenario, Australia’s percentage will drop to 53.92 before Sri Lanka and must win 2-0 to take them to a win percentage of 58.77 that will see them qualify ahead of India.
- If India lose the BGT 3-1, their win percentage will drop to 50. Even if Australia lose 2-0 in Sri Lanka, Pat Cummins’ team will still qualify with 57.02 win percentage.
- If the BGT ends 2-2, India will qualify if Sri Lanka beats Australia 2-0.
