Last Updated on 41 minutes ago by Charbel Coorey
As predicted, Group 1 of the 2026 Women’s T20 World Cup will go right down to the wire. South Africa’s victory over India on Sunday has left three teams on four points, with the possibility of net run rate deciding who finishes in the semi-finals.
In Group 2, England and West Indies are on the brink of the semi-finals. Here is a look at the different scenarios and which teams are in pole position to qualify for the final four.
Women’s T20 World Cup 2026 Qualification Scenarios: Who is best placed to make the semi-finals?
Group 1:
| Team | Points | NRR | Matches remaining |
| Australia | 6 | +4.391 | Pakistan, India |
| India | 4 | +2.511 | Bangladesh, Australia |
| South Africa | 4 | -0.546 | Netherlands, Bangladesh |
| Bangladesh | 4 | -0.641 | India, South Africa |
| Pakistan | 0 | -1.857 | Australia, Netherlands |
| Netherlands | 0 | -3.384 | South Africa, Pakistan |
Australia:
- Points: 6
- Net run rate: +4.391
- Matches remaining: Pakistan, India
Australia have been excellent so far in this T20 World Cup. Sophie Molineux’s team need one more victory to seal qualification to the semi-finals given their very strong net run rate. Also, one win should be enough to seal top spot.
India:
- Points: 4
- Net run rate: +2.511
- Matches remaining: Bangladesh, Australia
India’s defeat to South Africa puts them in a difficult predicament. Harmanpreet Kaur’s team has a strong net run rate of +2.511, but that could come to nothing if they lose one of their last two games and South Africa or Bangladesh win their final two.
India still have a tough match against Australia, and Sophie Molineux’s team could have the chance to knock India out assuming India beat Bangladesh and South Africa beat Netherlands.
South Africa:
- Points: 4
- Net run rate: -0.546
- Matches remaining: Netherlands, Bangladesh
The most difficult matches are out of the way for South Africa. They lost comprehensively to Australia, but a tight win over Pakistan and impressive, Marizanne Kapp-inspired win over India has put them right in contention.
The 2024 finalists are expected to beat Netherlands. Victory will put them level on six points with either India or Bangladesh, who play earlier on Thursday. If South Africa then beat Bangladesh, an Australian victory over India in the final match of the group stage will mean that Laura Woolvaardt’s team will qualify for the semi-finals ahead of Harmanpreet Kaur’s team.
Bangladesh:
- Points: 4
- Net run rate: -0.641
- Matches remaining: India, South Africa
Bangladesh have held their own so far, beating Netherlands and Pakistan to sit on four points. If Bangladesh beat heavyweights India and South Africa, Nigar Joty’s team will qualify as they will reach eight points. In that scenario, the maximum India and South Africa could finish with is six.
Pakistan and Netherlands are eliminated.
Group 2:
| Team | Points | NRR | Matches remaining |
| England | 6 | +2.490 | West Indies, New Zealand |
| West Indies | 6 | +0.644 | England, Ireland |
| New Zealand | 2 | -0.063 | Scotland, England |
| Scotland | 2 | -0.083 | New Zealand, Sri Lanka |
| Sri Lanka | 2 | -1.913 | Ireland, Scotland |
| Ireland | 0 | -1.054 | Sri Lanka, West Indies |
England:
- Points: 6
- Net run rate: +2.490
- Matches remaining: West Indies, New Zealand
One more victory will guarantee England’s progression to the semi-finals. A win over second-placed West Indies will all-but-seal top spot due to their strong net run rate.
However, they have the two toughest teams in the group remaining, so two losses could leave the hosts relying on net run rate to qualify.
West Indies:
- Points: 6
- Net run rate: +0.644
- Matches remaining: England, Ireland
West Indies, who also boast a 100% record, face a similar scenario. Victory over England will seal their passage to the final four. However, to finish top of the group, they will need to beat Ireland (assuming England beat New Zealand) as their net run rate is inferior.
Two defeats, however, leaves the door open for other teams to catch them as their net run rate is not far ahead of the chasing pack.
New Zealand:
- Points: 2
- Net run rate: -0.063
- Matches remaining: Scotland, England
Defending champions New Zealand must win their last two games. Defeats in their opening two matches left them needing a 100% record just to give themselves a chance of qualification. They snuck past Ireland, and need improved performances going forward.
Assuming Melie Kerr’s team beat Scotland, they will move to within two points of England and West Indies who play each other next.
- If West Indies beat England and New Zealand beat Scotland, the NZ-ENG game will be a shootout for the final spot. However, England’s far superior net run rate can see them through, so New Zealand need a big win over Scotland.
- If England beat West Indies and New Zealand beat Scotland, then the defending champions must beat England and hope Ireland upset the West Indies.
Scotland:
- Points: 2
- Net run rate: -0.083
- Matches remaining: New Zealand, Sri Lanka
Scotland also must win their last two games to stand a chance. They have been competitive so far in this tournament, and will back themselves to challenge a struggling New Zealand team.
An upset win over New Zealand will put Kathryn Bryce’s team within two points of either England or West Indies. They will then need to beat Sri Lanka and hope either England or West Indies finish on six points. Also, there is the question of net run rate, so West Indies finishing on six gives the Scots a better chance.
Sri Lanka:
- Points: 2
- Net run rate: -1.913
- Matches remaining: Ireland, Scotland
Sri Lanka will finish on six points if they beat both Ireland and Scotland. However, they will need to win by big margins given their net run rate is the worst in the group. Their best chance is West Indies losing their last two games and New Zealand finishing with a maximum of four points.
Ireland: Eliminated.
