Last Updated on 2 weeks by Charbel Coorey

After all the build up and hype, the 2024/25 Border Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) is upon us and it’s time to lock in our predictions. A fascinating series awaits, with two batting lineups looking to prove the doubters wrong on what are expected to be spicy pitches starting with Perth.

In this article, I will share my picks for leading run-scorers, leading wicket-takers and surprise packets from both teams, plus the series winner. Do share your thoughts in the comments or @cric_blog on X.

We are also on YouTube. If you prefer video, we also discuss our BGT 2024/25 predictions on the CricBlog TV YouTube channel.

BGT 2024/25 Predictions: Leading run-scorers, leading wicket-takers, surprise packets & series winner

Without further ado, here are my key predictions for the big series and reasoning behind them.

Leading run-scorers: Travis Head (Australia) and Rishabh Pant (India)

Travis Head loves playing against India. His superb hundred in the 2023 ODI World Cup Final stands out, but he also produced a superb century in the 2023 World Test Championship Final. Overall, he has scored 715 runs in ten Tests at an average of 42.06.

Moving pitches and quality Indian bowlers will be sure to test Head, but his counterattacking style can hold both he and Australia in good stead.

Similar applies to Rishabh Pant from an Indian perspective. A lot has happened in his life since his magnificent series in 2020/21, and that can spur him on to further greatness. He will score quickly, and can score big especially if the top order sets up a platform.

Other key contenders: Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Virat Kohli.

Leading wicket-takers: Pat Cummins (Australia) and Jasprit Bumrah (India)

Along with Kagiso Rabada, Pat Cummins and Jasprit Bumrah are the best fast bowlers in the world. Also, they both have the potential to finish as all-time greats in the format.

On surfaces expected to aid fast bowling, both Cummins and Bumrah – with their consistency and ability to move the ball – will be tough to handle. Given the importance of the series and the roles in their teams, expect both to play at least four of the Tests, and they are good enough to dominate throughout.

In seven Tests in Australia, Bumrah has taken 32 wickets at an average of 21.25. Against India at home, Cummins has picked up 35 wickets at 23.1.

Other key contenders: Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood, Mohammed Siraj, Akash Deep.

Surprise packets: Alex Carey (Australia) and Dhruv Jurel (India)

Alex Carey has already played 32 Tests, so to call him a potential surprise packet can be a surprise. However, he has the potential to turn the series in Australia’s favour. He comes into the 2024/25 BGT in great form, having struck runs in England and 452 runs in six innings in the Sheffield Shield.

The Carey-Pant battle could indeed be a deciding factor. Pant is ahead as a Test batter, but who’s to say Carey can’t produce the goods as he did in Australia’s last Test where he scored a memorable 98* to seal victory against New Zealand?

Dhruv Jurel is one to watch for India. He was outstanding for India A against Australia A on a challenging MCG pitch earlier this month, making scores of 80 (186) and 68 (122). His technique and temperament were impressive features of his game downunder, as was the case when India were under the pump in the fourth Test against England in February. Jurel scored 90 and 39* under pressure and won man of the match.

Series result: Australia to win 3-1

The absence of Cheteshwar Pujara this time around could be a huge factor. He faced over 2,000 deliveries across the 2018/19 and 2020/21 successes, keeping the Aussie attack at bay. Who will that player be this time? Time will tell.

On pitches offering more for the bowlers, Australia will have just enough to win this series. I expect there will be a few close Tests, but the hosts will prevail due to the ability of their top order to bat long, plus the longer batting order.

However, the form of Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne in particular remains in the spotlight. Also, Nathan McSweeney as opener can go either way, although I think he will hold his own. India’s bowlers can certainly make inroads, but whether they have enough runs this time to challenge is probably a bridge too far.

I believe Australia will win their first BGT series since 2014/15. Do you agree? Let us know what you think!