Last Updated on 4 years ago by Charbel Coorey
Cricket News: World Test Championship WTC scenarios: India-Pakistan Final? | WTC 2021-23 scenarios: Who will qualify for the Final?
The International Cricket Council (ICC) recently announced that the Final of the ongoing 2021-23 cycle of the World Test Championship (WTC) will be played at Lord’s next year. South Africa and Australia occupy the top-two spots in the standings presently. However, most of the contenders have to encounter several tough assignments in the run-up to the showpiece game in June 2023.
WTC 2021-23 Scenatios
On that note, CricBlog explores the qualification scenarios for each team involved in the championship.
South Africa
South Africa sits in top spot after seven Tests with a 71.43 per cent success rate. However, the Proteas still have to play three more series to round up this stage of the WTC cycle. That includes a three-match series each in Australia and England before they host West Indies for a two-match contest.
South Africa has an impressive record Down Under as they have won five and drawn two of their last ten Tests in Australia. They have also emerged victorious in five of their previous ten Tests in England. However, every new series brings a new set of challenges. Whether the Proteas will be able to replicate their run of form so far in the coming contests holds the key for their qualification chances to the WTC finale.
Australia
Australia has to play another nine Tests in this cycle. Five of those games will be at home against West Indies and South Africa. However, its most prominent challenge will be a four-match Test series in India.
It will be their final assignment before the WTC finale and will be instrumental in sealing both the team’s fates with regards to this tournament. Australia currently has a 70 per cent winning rate, which is significantly higher than the third-placed Sri Lanka’s 53.33 per cent. But Australia’s figures could drop starkly to 63.13 per cent even if they win all the five home Tests but lose the remaining four in India.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka sits in the third spot with a 53.33 per cent current rate. Though their performances so far appear to be impressive, the Lankans have already played five of their six series in the ongoing WTC cycle. Their final assignment will be a two-match Test series in New Zealand. The best that their percentage can improve is up to 61.1 per cent, provided they win both their remaining games against the Kiwis. In that backdrop, Sri Lanka’s chances of making it to the finals look are arguably quite unlikely presently.
India
The runners-up from the previous cycle of the WTC have more or less completed their relatively more difficult assignments this time around. India sits in the fourth spot after four games with a 52.08 success percentage. Rohit Sharma’s men will be heading for a two-game Test series in Bangladesh before hosting Australia for a four-match contest.
India can take its percentage up to 68.06 by winning all of the remaining six games. However, a slip-up is imminent as some point in time, especially against visitors as proficient as the Australians.
Pakistan
Like India, Pakistan has played four out of their six series so far. They will be hosting New Zealand and England for two and three games respectively in their last two series of the cycle. Babar Azam’s men occupy the fifth spot in the standings with a success rate of 51.85 per cent.
If they win four games and lose a solitary one, their score will shoot up to 61.9. If they win all six games, Pakistan will have a 69.05 percent success rate. India and Pakistan have fairly similar qualification scenarios and it will turn out to be a neck-to-neck contest between the two neighbours to grab a spot for the Lord’s finale in all likelihood.
West Indies
West Indies are in the sixth spot with a 50 percent success rate. The men from Caribbean have another four Tests to play in this WTC cycle. However, those games will take place in Australia and South Africa respectively. Their percentage can shoot up to 65.38 if they win all of these matches.
However, West Indies last emerged victorious in a Test in Australia way back in February 1997. They have won only one of the 15 Tests that they have played in South Africa so far. Even that sole win was back in December 2007. So, West Indies’ WTC finale hangs in a very thin rope currently.
England
England have six Tests to play in this WTC cycle. Three of them will be against South Africa at home whereas the rest will be vs Pakistan away. However, their current dismal rate of 33.33 percent means that even winning all of the remaining games will only take them up to 51.52. That might not be enough to take them to the top two spots in any circumstance.
New Zealand
The champions of the inaugural edition of the WTC sit in the eighth spot with a 25.93 percentage. They have to feature in four more Tests in this cycle. Two of them will be in Pakistan and the other two will be against Sri Lanka at home. Positive results in all these encounters will still take them nowhere close to the top-two spots in the standings.
Bangladesh
With one win in 10 Tests, Bangladesh has had a very disappointing WTC tourney so far. They sit in the last spot with only 16 points to their name. Their best hope could be dampening India’s qualification chances when they host the latter for a two-match series later on this year.
(Stats taken from ESPNCricinfo)
